Ransomware-as-a-Service is collapsing as attackers abandon noisy encryption in favor of fast, AI-driven data exfiltration, making unstructured data protection—not endpoint recovery—the defining challenge for modern cyber defense.
The Quiet Collapse of Ransomware-as-a-Service — and Why Data Is Now the Real Target
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Table of Contents
-
- Introduction: It Was Always About the Data
- The Affiliate Model Collapsed Under Poor Incentives
- Victims Stopped Behaving Predictably—and That Breaks RaaS
- RaaS Platforms Became Obvious Targets(2025 Update)
- Payment Behavior Reveals the Real Trend
- AI Is Accelerating the Demise of RaaS
- What This Means for Defenders
By Ed Dubrovsky, CISSP, OSCP, PMP, MBA, MSc,
Introduction: It Was Always About the Data
We believed it was always the data that posed the greatest risk, and with AI in the mix, with the ability to train on data and produce relevant insights in seconds, the threat actors are realizing that this is where the focus must be.
This change in focus is changing the RaaS (Ransomware as a Service) business model, which dominated the cybercrime arena since roughly 2017.
RaaS is not breaking because cybercrime is shrinking; it’s losing relevance because endpoint encryption is disappearing, and with it, the need for developers and paying RaaS operators for an element that is not being used.
Specifically, the following elements are introducing the collapse of RaaS and the increase in focus on SPEED, IMPACT, and Data Exfiltration. Moreover, the following elements are driving this change:
-
The Affiliate Model Collapsed Under Poor Incentives
RaaS worked when highly skilled developers were required to build malware, and less-skilled affiliates handled the other attack layers, such as access and deployment. In return, profits were split cleanly.
This is referred to frequently as a single-phase or single-shot extortion.
Moreover, with increase Law Enforcement action against RaaS platforms, trust in the platforms is diminishing, and trust is everything to RaaS.
However, some RaaS platforms are refusing to give up, but it is what I consider to be the final death throes of the ecosystem, and it is resulting in a rapid demise because developers are squeezing affiliates to compensate for the loss in revenues, are withholding decryptors, and some are running exit scams.
-
Victims Stopped Behaving Predictably—and That Breaks RaaS
Remember the days when backups were not viable or did not exist? Most companies have responded, and in the majority of matters, this meant that decryptors are needed and an extensive recovery is required to get back to operations.
This is no longer the reality on the ground.
Organizations have invested the majority of their budgets in controls to prevent encryption. They are not sufficiently focused on preventing data exfiltration. What I term the “silent killer”.
Because of that shift, RaaS is failing as it requires victims to panic, that boards would pay for speed, and that Cyber insurance carriers would cover payment of ransom.
This encouraged the mindset of “This is the cost of doing business”.
Recovery firms became a cost factor that no one could really estimate, and recovery-at-scale was unattainable. However, where there is no encryption, there is little to no need for recovery.
-
RaaS Platforms Became Obvious Targets
RaaS failure is that it places a very clear target on the platform, by LE and competitors alike. Affiliates are not looking for the bright lights, while RaaS platforms were looking for the “getting famous” aspect, and those two needs contradicted each other.
-
Payment Behavior Reveals the Real Trend
When it comes to payment, the majority of encrypted attacks decide not make a payment. Since they need to recover systems regardless of whether a decryptor is available or not, more than 75% of firms opt not make a payment. However, in matters of data exfiltration, that figure is turned on its head. More than 55% of companies with data exfiltration are opting to make a payment. And based on statistics from CyberSteward, if the quality of data exfiltrated is considered sensitive, almost 100% of companies are opting to make a payment.
These statistics are confusing when intermingled, but when separated, a clear trend emerges.
RaaS was primarily built to lock and ransom, not leak-and-pressure. The market changed, the product did not.
-
AI Is Accelerating the Demise of RaaS
Analysis of data is producing quality and impact faster than ever before, and enables threat actors to monetize while the victim is under pressure and uncertainty. There is no longer a need for a platform, a brand, a support desk, or a payment broker. All that is required for an efficient operation is access to AI models, access to an organization, the data, and a pressure narrative.
What This Means for Defenders
For these reasons, defenders must reconsider priorities and how to achieve the objectives of protecting the perimeters, but more so, the data that is the lifeblood of most, if not all, organizations today.
FileFlex Enterprise is uniquely positioned to protect the unstructured part of data with clean integration into existing monitoring controls, as it introduces a unique data access to unstructured data elements using zero-trust concepts that are decades old, proven in military systems, and now brought up to the commercial space using intuitive interfaces and rock-solid technology and encryption.
However, the important element that must be highlighted is that the FileFlex Enterprise capability is completely incompatible with any threat actor attack chains and, most importantly, existing skillsets, and there is always something to be said about not being the lowest hanging fruit.
For further reading see Why Data Exfiltration Defines Modern Breaches, How to Enforce Zero Trust Access Control to Mitigate Data Breach and Ransomware, How to Reduce Ransomware Risk Using Zero Trust Data Access (ZTDA), and How to Reduce the Risk of Ransomware with the Zero Trust Platform of FileFlex Enterprise.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) becoming less effective?
RaaS depends on endpoint encryption to force payment, but modern defenses, backups, and recovery strategies have made encryption noisy, unreliable, and increasingly ignored by victims.
Why are attackers shifting from encryption to data exfiltration?
Data theft is quieter, faster, and more profitable—especially with AI enabling rapid analysis and monetization of stolen data while victims face regulatory, legal, and reputational pressure.
How does AI accelerate the decline of traditional ransomware models?
AI removes the need for centralized ransomware platforms by allowing threat actors to extract value directly from stolen data without malware brands, payment brokers, or affiliate ecosystems.
How does FileFlex address modern data-centric cyber threats?
FileFlex applies zero-trust access controls to unstructured data, preventing unauthorized access and exfiltration in ways that are fundamentally incompatible with modern attacker techniques.
